Western Balkans Face Demographic Crisis: Emigration, Ageing, and the New Era of Immigration

The Western Balkans, a region that includes countries such as Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, and others, is grappling with a severe demographic crisis that threatens the very fabric of its societies. This crisis is characterized by rapid population ageing, high levels of emigration, and chronic labour shortages, but there are signs that the region is on the cusp of a significant demographic shift.

Population Decline and Ageing

The population of almost every country in the Western Balkans is shrinking at an alarming rate. Croatia, for example, has seen its population drop by 9.64% in just a decade, from 4.28 million in 2011 to 3.87 million in 2021. This decline is largely attributed to emigration and low birth rates. The country is also experiencing a rapid ageing of its population; in 1991, only 12% of the population was aged 65 or over, but by 2021, this figure had risen to 22.45%[1].

Serbia is facing a similar crisis, with its population decreasing by more than half a million people between 2011 and 2022, from 7.18 million to 6.64 million. The main factor behind Serbia's shrinking population is the significant gap between births and deaths, with 60,813 births and 97,098 deaths recorded in 2023 alone[1].

Emigration and Labour Shortages

Emigration has been a long-standing issue in the region. Many young and skilled workers have left their home countries in search of better opportunities, particularly in EU member states like Germany. In Croatia, it is estimated that between 250,000 to 310,000 Croatians have emigrated since 2013, with a significant proportion of them being of childbearing and working age. This exodus has resulted in chronic labour shortages, affecting not only low-skilled jobs but also critical sectors that require skilled workers such as engineering and specialized fields[1].

The New Era of Immigration

In a surprising turn of events, the Western Balkans are now opening their doors to immigrants to address these labour shortages. Countries like Croatia, which is the richest in the region and the only EU member, are setting the stage for this new demographic trend. Immigrants from various parts of the world, including Kenya, the Philippines, and Russia, are now finding employment in the region. For instance, Kenyan and Filipino workers are employed in hotels and restaurants in Belgrade and Tirana, respectively[1].

Montenegro, which has seen a modest population growth due to immigration, is another example. The country's population increased by 2% in recent years, largely due to the registration of over 96,000 foreign citizens, which accounts for about 15% of the total population[1].

Economic and Social Implications

The economic implications of this demographic crisis are profound. In the past, governments in the region relied on remittances from emigrants as a significant source of revenue. However, as emigrants settle abroad with their families, the amount of remittances sent back home has diminished. For example, in Albania, remittances accounted for 28% of the GDP in 1993 but had fallen to 9.24% by 2022[1].

The social fabric of these countries is also being affected. With fewer young people entering the job market and a declining number of students in schools, the long-term sustainability of public services and social systems is under threat. In North Macedonia, the number of students in elementary and lower secondary schools has declined by almost 26% over the past two decades[1].

A Changing Future

While the current demographic projections paint a dire picture, with some populations projected to halve by the end of the century, there is a glimmer of hope. The experience of countries like Poland and Romania, which have seen their fortunes change with the influx of immigrants, suggests that the Western Balkans could also see a reversal of their demographic decline. As the region continues to open up to immigration and economic growth, the future may be more promising than current projections indicate[1].

In conclusion, the Western Balkans are at a critical juncture in their demographic history. As they navigate the challenges of population decline, ageing, and emigration, they are also embracing a new era of immigration that could potentially reshape their future. For expats and observers alike, this region's journey towards demographic stability and growth will be an interesting and pivotal development to watch.